Quest for the Cup: Putting the final touches on the postseason picture
Burlington, Ont. – As always, it all comes down to Week 9 of the Ontario University Athletics (OUA) football season to paint the full postseason picture, with 15 potential playoff scenarios still at play based on the OUA’s tiebreaking procedures (OUA Operations, pg. 43).
What We Already Know
Four teams – Wilfrid Laurier (7-0), Western (7-0), Queen’s (5-2), and Windsor (4-3) – have already punched their ticket to the postseason, with the first three having also clinched a home playoff game. On the other end of the standings, Waterloo (2-6) and Toronto (1-6) have been officially eliminated from playoff contention.
Battle for the Top
Much like it did in 2023, the top spot in the conference will come down to a head-to-head matchup between the Golden Hawks and Mustangs in Week 9. Both teams enter the final week with perfect 7-0 marks, meaning that whoever takes home the win in the Yates Cup rematch will earn the top seed and a bye through to the semifinals. The other will host a quarterfinal contest on October 25.
Rounding Out the Top 4
The current third and fourth seeds will also go head-to-head to close out their campaigns, with the winner finishing in the third spot. Should the Lancers earn the Week 9 win, Queen’s would then finish fourth and round out the quarterfinal hosts, but a Windsor loss is not quite as cut and dry.
A Flurry of .500 Finishes
Should the Lancers finish at 4-4, their fate will be dependent on how their fellow Week 9 competitors fare, including the matchup between McMaster (3-4) and Carleton (3-4).
If the Ravens win and match Windsor at 4-4, the Lancers will finish fourth and Carleton fifth thanks to their record against common opponents (Tiebreaker Step 5). A McMaster win also leaves the Lancers in fourth thanks to their head-to-head win in Week 4.
A further layer gets added if Ottawa (3-4) adds a .500 record into the mix (which would happen with a Week 9 win over the Varsity Blues).
Should Ottawa and Carleton be the lone 4-4 finishers, Carleton’s Panda Game victory would give them the edge for the fifth seed. If the Marauders and Gee-Gees are the only two .500 teams, meanwhile, McMaster would have the edge for the No. 5 spot given their Week 9 win over Carleton (Tiebreaker Step 6).
If the Gee-Gees, Lancers, and Ravens all finish at 4-4, Ottawa would take the No. 4 seed given their record against common opponents. After restarting the tiebreaker, Windsor would then finish fifth, also given their success against common opponents. If it is McMaster at 4-4 instead of Carleton, meanwhile, common opponents would leave Windsor at No. 6, and with the Marauders’ win over Carleton (Tiebreaker Step 6), McMaster would finish fourth and Ottawa fifth.
Unraveling Three Win Teams
One of the York Lions (2-5) and Guelph Gryphons (2-5) will finish the year with three wins following their head-to-head season finale. And while a win therein does not guarantee a playoff spot, the losing team will be officially eliminated from playoff contention.
If York finishes as one of just two 3-5 finishers, their fate would be in the hands of the McMaster v. Carleton tilt. In this situation, a win by the former would mean York earns the No. 7 seed, courtesy of their head-to-head win way back in Week 1, but a Ravens’ victory leaves the Lions on the outside looking in after Carleton’s Week 5 win.
The situation is reversed in this scenario if Guelph defeats York and is one of two 3-5 teams. The Gryphons defeated Carleton in Week 6, which would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker therein, while a McMaster win over Guelph in Week 5 earns them the edge for the final playoff spot.
The final four scenarios are broken down based on three teams finishing with 3-5 marks.
Regardless of the Carleton/McMaster Week 9 result, the winning team therein would earn the highest seed over Ottawa and York based on the respective tiebreaker. The Garnet and Grey would then finish 7th on the heels of their win over York, while the Lions would be eliminated.
A Week 9 Guelph win also leaves them with identical results should they be joined by Ottawa and Carleton or McMaster at 3-5. The Gryphons would earn the No. 6 seed in both scenarios based on their record against common opponents, while Ottawa would be eliminated in both instances (i.e., Carleton advances based on head-to-head win, while McMaster would prevail based on a victory over Carleton, the highest-seeded team in their common opponent wins).
Week 9 Schedule
With three playoff spots still up for grabs and no team knowing their final ranking heading into the final week of the regular season, there is still plenty to play for this weekend, with all the action available on OUA.tv and the OUA.tv mobile apps.
Wilfrid Laurier at Western
Carleton at McMaster
York at Guelph
Toronto at Ottawa
Windsor at Queen’s
